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The latest from Google Research
Released Data Set: Features Extracted From YouTube Videos for Multiview Learning
martes, 26 de noviembre de 2013
Posted by Omid Madani, Senior Software Engineer
“If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it
probably
is a duck.”
-
The “duck test”
Performance of machine learning algorithms, supervised or unsupervised, is often significantly enhanced when a variety of feature families, or
multiple views
of the data, are available. For example, in the case of web pages, one feature family can be based on the words appearing on the page, and another can be based on the URLs and related connectivity properties. Similarly, videos contain both audio and visual signals where in turn each modality is analyzed in a variety of ways. For instance, the visual stream can be analyzed based on the color and edge distribution, texture, motion, object types, and so on. YouTube videos are also associated with textual information (title, tags, comments, etc.). Each feature family complements others in providing predictive signals to accomplish a prediction or classification task, for example, in automatically classifying videos into subject areas such as sports, music, comedy, games, and so on.
We have released a dataset of over 100k feature vectors extracted from public YouTube videos. These videos are labeled by one of 30 classes, each class corresponding to a video game (with some amount of class noise): each video shows a gameplay of a video game, for teaching purposes for example. Each instance (video) is described by three feature families (textual, visual, and auditory), and each family is broken into subfamilies yielding up to 13 feature types per instance. Neither video identities nor class identities are released.
We hope that this dataset will be valuable for research on a variety of multiview related machine learning topics, including multiview clustering, co-training, active learning, classifier fusion and ensembles.
The data and more information can be obtained from the
UCI machine learning repository (multiview video dataset)
, or from
here
.
The MiniZinc Challenge
lunes, 25 de noviembre de 2013
Posted by Jon Orwant, Engineering Manager
Constraint Programming
is a style of problem solving where the properties of a solution are first identified, and a large space of solutions is searched through to find the best. Good constraint programming depends on modeling the problem well, and on searching effectively. Poor representations or slow search techniques can make the difference between finding a good solution and finding no solution at all.
One example of constraint programming is
scheduling
: for instance, determining a schedule for a conference where there are 30 talks (that’s one constraint), only eight rooms to hold them in (that’s another constraint), and some talks can’t overlap (more constraints).
Every year, some of the world’s top constraint programming researchers compete for medals in the MiniZinc challenge. Problems range from scheduling to vehicle routing to program verification and frequency allocation.
Google’s open source solver,
or-tools
, took two gold medals and two silver medals. The gold medals were in parallel and portfolio search, and the silver medals were in fixed and free search. Google’s success was due in part to integrating a
SAT
solver to handle boolean constraints, and a new presolve phase inherited from
integer programming
.
Laurent Perron, a member of Google’s Optimization team and a lead contributor to or-tools, noted that every year brings fresh techniques to the competition: “One of the big surprises this year was the success of lazy-clause generation, which combines techniques from the SAT and constraint programming communities.”
If you’re interested in learning more about constraint programming, you can start at the
wikipedia page
, or have a look at
or-tools
.
The full list of winners is available
here
.
New Research Challenges in Language Understanding
viernes, 22 de noviembre de 2013
Posted by Maggie Johnson, Director of Education and University Relations
We held the first global Language Understanding and Knowledge Discovery Focused Faculty Workshop in Nanjing, China, on November 14-15, 2013. Thirty-four faculty members joined the workshop arriving from 10 countries and regions across APAC, EMEA and the US. Googlers from Research, Engineering and University Relations/University Programs also attended the event.
The 2-day workshop included keynote talks, panel discussions and break-out sessions [
agenda
]. It was an engaging and productive workshop, and we saw lots of positive interactions among the attendees. The workshop encouraged communication between Google and faculty around the world working in these areas.
Research in text mining continues to explore open questions relating to entity annotation, relation extraction, and more. The workshop’s goal was to brainstorm and discuss relevant topics to further investigate these areas. Ultimately, this research should help provide users search results that are much more relevant to them.
At the end of the workshop, participants identified four topics representing challenges and opportunities for further exploration in Language Understanding and Knowledge Discovery:
Knowledge representation, integration, and maintenance
Efficient and scalable infrastructure and algorithms for inferencing
Presentation and explanation of knowledge
Multilingual computation
Going forward, Google will be collaborating with academic researchers on a position paper related to these topics. We also welcome faculty interested in contributing to further research in this area to submit a proposal to the
Faculty Research Awards program
. Faculty Research Awards are one-year grants to researchers working in areas of mutual interest.
The faculty attendees responded positively to the focused workshop format, as it allowed time to go in depth into important and timely research questions. Encouraged by their feedback, we are considering similar workshops on other topics in the future.
Unique Strategies for Scaling Teacher Professional Development
martes, 19 de noviembre de 2013
Posted by Candice Reimers, Senior Program Manager
Research shows
that professional development for educators has a direct, positive impact on students, so it’s no wonder that institutions are eager to explore creative ways to enhance professional development for K-12 teachers. Open source MOOC platforms, such as
Course Builder
, offer the flexibility to extend the reach of standard curriculum; recently, several courses have launched that demonstrate new and creative applications of MOOCs. With their wide reach, participant engagement, and rich content, MOOCs that offer professional development opportunities for teachers bring flexibility and accessibility to an important area.
This summer, the ScratchEd team out of Harvard University launched the
Creative Computing
MOOC, a 6 week self paced workshop focused on building computational thinking skills in the classroom. As a MOOC, the course had 2600 participants, who created more than 4700 Scratch projects, and engaged in 3500 forum discussions, compared to the “in-person” class held last year, which reached only 50 educators.
Other creative uses of Course Builder for educator professional development come from
National Geographic
and
Annenberg Learner
who joined forces to develop
Water: The Essential Resource
, a course developed around California’s Education and Environment Initiative.
The Friday Institute
’s MOOC,
Digital Learning Transitions
, focused on the benefits of utilizing educational technology and reached educators across 50 states and 68 countries worldwide. The course design included embedded peer support, project-based learning, and case studies; a
post-course survey
showed an overwhelming majority of responders “were able to personalize their own learning experiences” in an “engaging, easy to navigate” curriculum and greatly appreciated the 24/7 access to materials.
In addition to participant surveys, course authors using the Course Builder platform are able to conduct deeper analysis via web analytics and
course data
to assess course effectiveness and make improvements for future courses.
New opportunities to experience professional development MOOCs are rapidly emerging; the University of Adelaide recently announced their
Digital Technology course
to provide professional development for primary school teachers on the
new Australian curriculum
, the Google in Education team just launched
a suite of courses
for teachers using Google technologies, and the Friday Institute
course
that aligns with the U.S. based
Common Core State Standards
is now available.
We’re excited about the innovative approaches underway and the positive impact it can have for students and teachers around the world. We also look forward to seeing new, creative applications of MOOC platforms in new, unchartered territory.
Moore’s Law Part 4: Moore's Law in other domains
viernes, 15 de noviembre de 2013
This is the last entry of a series focused on Moore’s Law and its implications moving forward, edited from a White paper on Moore’s Law, written by Google University Relations Manager Michel Benard. This series quotes major sources about Moore’s Law and explores how they believe Moore’s Law will likely continue over the course of the next several years. We will also explore if there are fields other than digital electronics that either have an emerging Moore's Law situation, or promises for such a Law that would drive their future performance.
--
The quest
for Moore’s Law
and its potential impact in other disciplines is a journey the technology industry is starting, by crossing the Rubicon from the semiconductor industry to other less explored fields, but with the particular mindset created by Moore’s Law. Our goal is to explore if there are Moore’s Law opportunities emerging in other disciplines, as well as its potential impact. As such, we have interviewed several professors and researchers and asked them if they could see emerging ‘Moore’s Laws’ in their discipline. Listed below are some highlights of those discussions, ranging from CS+ to potentials in the Energy Sector:
Sensors and Data Acquisition
Ed Parsons
, Google Geospatial Technologist
The More than Moore discussion can be extended to outside of the main chip, and go within the same board as the main chip or within the device that a user is carrying. Greater sensors capabilities (for the measurement of pressure, electromagnetic field and other local conditions) allow including them in smart phones, glasses, or other devices and perform local data acquisition. This trend is strong, and should allow future devices benefiting from Moore’s Law to receive enough data to perform more complex applications.
Metcalfe’s Law
states that the value of a telecommunication network is proportional to the square of connected nodes of the system. This law can be used in parallel to Moore’s Law to evaluate the value of the
Internet of Things
. The network itself can be seen as composed by layers: at the user’s local level (to capture data related to the body of the user, or to immediately accessible objects), locally around the user (such as to get data within the same street as the user), and finally globally (to get data from the global internet). The extrapolation made earlier in this blog (several TB available in flash memory) will lead to the ability to construct, exchange and download/upload entire contexts for a given situation or a given application and use these contexts without intense network activity, or even with very little or no network activity.
Future of Moore’s Law and its impact on Physics
Sverre Jarp
, CERN
CERN
, and its experiments with the Large Electron-Positron Collider (
LEP
) and Large Hadron Collider (LHC) generate data on the order of a PetaByte per year; this data has to be filtered, processed and analyzed in order to find meaningful physics events leading to new discoveries. In this context Moore’s Law has been particularly helpful to allow computing power, storage and networking capabilities at CERN and at other High Energy Physics (
HEP
) centers to scale up regularly. Several generations of hardware and software have been exhausted during the journey from mainframes to today’s clusters.
CERN has a long tradition of collaboration with chip manufacturers, hardware and software vendors to understand and predict next trends in the computing evolution curve. Recent analysis indicates that Moore’s Law will likely continue over the next decade. The statement of ‘several TB of flash memory availability by 2025’ may even be a little conservative according to most recent analysis.
Big Data Visualizations
Katy Börner
, Indiana University
Thanks to Moore’s Law, the amount of data available for any given phenomenon, whether sensed or simulated, has been growing by several orders of magnitude over the past decades. Intelligent sampling can be used to filter out the most relevant bits of information and is practiced in Physics, Astronomy, Medicine and other sciences. Subsequently, data needs to be analyzed and visualized to identify meaningful trends and phenomena, and to communicate them to others.
While most people learn in school how to read charts and maps, many never learn how to read a network layout—data literacy remains a challenge. The
Information Visualization Massive Open Online Course (MOOC)
at Indiana University teaches students from more than 100 countries how to read but also how to design meaningful network, topical, geospatial, and temporal visualizations. Using the tools introduced in this free course anyone can analyze, visualize, and navigate complex data sets to understand patterns and trends.
Candidate for Moore’s Law in Energy
Professor Francesco Stellacci
, EPFL
It is currently hard to see a “Moore’s Law” applying to candidates in energy technology. Nuclear fusion could reserve some positive surprises, if several significant breakthroughs are found in the process of creating usable energy with this technique. For any other technology the technological growth will be slower. Best solar cells of today have a 30% efficiency, which could scale higher of course (obviously not much more than a factor of 3). Also cost could be driven down by an order of magnitude. Best estimates show, however, a combined performance improvement by a factor 30 over many years.
Further Discussion of Moore’s Law in Energy
Ross Koningstein
, Google Director Emeritus
As of today there is no obvious Moore’s Law in the Energy sector which could decrease some major costs by 50% every 18 months. However material properties at nanoscale, and chemical processes such as
catalysis
are being investigated and could lead to promising results. Applications targeted are
hydrocarbon
creation at scale and improvement of
oil refinery processes
, where breakthrough in micro/nano property catalysts is pursued. Hydrocarbons are much more compatible at scale with the existing automotive/aviation and natural gas distribution systems. Here in California,
Google Ventures
has invested in
Cool Planet Energy Systems
, a company with neat technology that can convert biomass to gasoline/jet fuel/diesel with impressive efficiency.
One of the challenges is the ability to run many experiments at low cost per experiment, instead of only a few expensive experiments per year. Discoveries are likely to happen faster if more experiments are conducted. This leads to heavier investments, which are difficult to achieve within slim margin businesses. Therefore the nurturing processes for disruptive business are likely to come from new players, beside existing players which will decide to fund significant new investments.
Of course, these discussions could be opened for many other sectors. The opportunities for more discourse on the impact and future of Moore’s Law on CS and other disciplines are abundant, and can be continued with your comments on the
Research at Google Google+ page
. Please join, and share your thoughts.
The first detailed maps of global forest change
jueves, 14 de noviembre de 2013
Posted by Matt Hansen and Peter Potapov, University of Maryland; Rebecca Moore and Matt Hancher, Google
Most people are familiar with exploring images of the Earth’s surface in Google Maps and Earth, but of course there’s more to satellite data than just pretty pictures. By applying algorithms to time-series data it is possible to quantify global land dynamics, such as forest extent and change. Mapping global forests over time not only enables many science applications, such as climate change and biodiversity modeling efforts, but also informs policy initiatives by providing objective data on forests that are ready for use by governments, civil society and private industry in improving forest management.
In a collaboration led by researchers at the University of Maryland, we built a new map product that quantifies global forest extent and change from 2000 to 2012. This product is the first of its kind, a global 30 meter resolution thematic map of the Earth’s land surface that offers a consistent characterization of forest change at a resolution that is high enough to be locally relevant as well. It captures myriad forest dynamics, including fires, tornadoes, disease and logging.
Global 30 meter resolution thematic maps of the Earth’s land surface: Landsat composite reference image (2000), summary map of forest loss, extent and gain (2000-2012), individual maps of forest extent, gain, loss, and loss color-coded by year.
Click to enlarge
The satellite data came from the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) sensor onboard the NASA/USGS
Landsat 7
satellite. The expertise of NASA and USGS, from satellite design to operations to data management and delivery, is critical to any earth system study using Landsat data. For this analysis, we processed over 650,000 ETM+ images in order to characterize global forest change.
Key to the study’s success was the collaboration between remote sensing scientists at the University of Maryland, who developed and tested models for processing and characterizing the Landsat data, and computer scientists at Google, who oversaw the implementation of the final models using Google’s Earth Engine computation platform.
Google Earth Engine
is a massively parallel technology for high-performance processing of geospatial data, and houses a copy of the entire Landsat image catalog. For this study, a total of 20 terapixels of Landsat data were processed using one million CPU-core hours on 10,000 computers in parallel, in order to characterize year 2000 percent tree cover and subsequent tree cover loss and gain through 2012. What would have taken a single computer 15 years to perform was completed in a matter of days using Google Earth Engine computing.
Global forest loss totaled 2.3 million square kilometers and gain 0.8 million square kilometers from 2000 to 2012. Among the many results is the finding that tropical forest loss is increasing with an average of 2,101 additional square kilometers of forest loss per year over the study period. Despite the reduction in Brazilian deforestation over the study period, increasing rates of forest loss in countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Tanzania, Angola, Peru and Paraguay resulted in a statistically significant trend in increasing tropical forest loss. The maps and statistics from this study fill an information void for many parts of the world. The results can be used as an initial reference for countries lacking such information, as a spur to capacity building in such countries, and as a basis of comparison in evolving national forest monitoring methods. Additionally, we hope it will enable further science investigations ranging from the evaluation of the integrity of protected areas to the economic drivers of deforestation to carbon cycle modeling.
The Chaco woodlands of Bolivia, Paraguay and Argentina are under intensive pressure from agroindustrial development. Paraguay’s Chaco woodlands within the western half of the country are experiencing rapid deforestation in the development of cattle ranches. The result is the highest rate of deforestation in the world.
Click to enlarge
Global map of forest change:
http://earthenginepartners.appspot.com/science-2013-global-forest
If you are curious to learn more, tune in next Monday, November 18 to a live-streamed, online presentation and demonstration by Matt Hansen and colleagues from UMD, Google, USGS, NASA and the Moore Foundation:
Live-stream Presentation: Mapping Global Forest Change
Live online presentation and demonstration, followed by Q&A
Monday, November 18, 2013 at 1pm EST, 10am PST
Link to live-streamed event:
http://goo.gl/JbWWTk
Please submit questions here:
http://goo.gl/rhxK5X
For further results and details of this study, see
High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change
in the November 15th issue of the journal Science.
Moore’s Law, Part 3: Possible extrapolations over the next 15 years and impact
miércoles, 13 de noviembre de 2013
This is the third entry of a series focused on Moore’s Law and its implications moving forward, edited from a White paper on Moore’s Law, written by Google University Relations Manager Michel Benard. This series quotes major sources about Moore’s Law and explores how they believe Moore’s Law will likely continue over the course of the next several years. We will also explore if there are fields other than digital electronics that either have an emerging Moore's Law situation, or promises for such a Law that would drive their future performance.
--
More Moore
We examine data from the ITRS 2012
Overall Roadmap Technology Characteristics
(ORTC 2012), and select notable interpolations; The chart below shows chip size trends up to the year 2026 along with the “Average Moore’s Law” line. Additionally, in the
ORTC 2011 tables
we find data on 3D chip layer increases (up to 128 layers), including costs. Finally, the ORTC 2011 index sheet estimates that the
DRAM
cost per bit at production will be ~0.002 microcents per bit by ~2025. From these sources we draw three More Moore (MM) extrapolations, that by the year 2025:
4Tb Flash
multi-level cell
(MLC) memory will be in production
There will be ~100 billion transistors per microprocessing unit (MPU)
1TB RAM Memory will cost less than $100
More than Moore
It should be emphasized that “More than Moore” (MtM) technologies do not constitute an alternative or even a competitor to the digital trend as described by Moore’s Law. In fact, it is the heterogeneous integration of digital and non-digital functionalities into compact systems that will be the key driver for a wide variety of application fields. Whereas MM may be viewed as the brain of an intelligent compact system, MtM refers to its capabilities to interact with the outside world and the users.
As such, functional diversification may be regarded as a complement of digital signal and data processing in a product. This includes the interaction with the outside world through sensors and actuators and the subsystem for powering the product, implying analog and mixed signal processing, the incorporation of passive and/or high-voltage components, micro-mechanical devices enabling biological functionalities, and more. While MtM looks very promising for a variety of diversification topics, the ITRS study does not give figures from which “solid” extrapolations can be made. However, we can make safe/not so safe bets going towards 2025, and examine what these extrapolations mean in terms of the user.
Today we have a 1TB hard disk drives (HDD) for $100, but the access speed to data on the disk does not allow to take full advantage of this data in a fully interactive, or even practical, way. More importantly, the size and construction of HDD does not allow for their incorporation into mobile devices, Solid state drives (SSD), in comparison, have similar data transfer rates (~1Gb/s), latencies typically 100 times less than HDD, and have a significantly smaller form factor with no moving parts. The promise of offering several TB of flash memory, cost effectively by 2025, in a device carried along during the day (e.g. smartphone, watch, clothing, etc.) represents a paradigm shift with regard of today’s situation; it will empower the user by moving him/her from an environment where local data needs to be refreshed frequently (as with augmented reality applications) to a new environment where full contextual data will be available locally and refreshed only when critically needed.
If data is pre-loaded in the order of magnitude of TBs, one will be able to get a complete contextual data set loaded before an action or a movement, and the device will dispatch its local intelligence to the user during the progress of the action, regardless of network availability or performance. This opens up the possibility of combining local 3D models and remote inputs, allowing applications like 3D conferencing to become available. The development and use of 3D avatars could even facilitate many social interaction models. To benefit from such applications the use of personal devices such as Google Glass may become pervasive, allowing users to navigate 3D scenes and environments naturally, as well as facilitating 3D conferencing and their “social” interactions.
The opportunities for more discourse on the impact and future of Moore’s Law on CS and other disciplines are abundant, and can be continued with your comments on the
Research at Google Google+ page
. Please join, and share your thoughts.
Moore’s Law, Part 2: More Moore and More than Moore
martes, 12 de noviembre de 2013
This is the second entry of a series focused on Moore’s Law and its implications moving forward, edited from a White paper on Moore’s Law, written by Google University Relations Manager Michel Benard. This series quotes major sources about Moore’s Law and explores how they believe Moore’s Law will likely continue over the course of the next several years. We will also explore if there are fields other than digital electronics that either have an emerging Moore's Law situation, or promises for such a Law that would drive their future performance.
--
One of the fundamental lessons derived for the past successes of the semiconductor industry comes for the observation that most of the innovations of the past ten years—those that indeed that have revolutionized the way CMOS transistors are manufactured nowadays—were initiated 10–15 years before they were incorporated into the CMOS process. Strained silicon research began in the early 90s, high-κ/metal-gate initiated in the mid-90s and multiple-gate transistors were pioneered in the late 90s. This fundamental observation generates a simple but fundamental question: “What should the ITRS do to identify now what the extended semiconductor industry will need 10–15 years from now?”
-
International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2012
More Moore
As we look at the years 2020–2025, we can see that the physical dimensions of
CMOS
manufacture are expected to be crossing below the 10 nanometer threshold. It is expected that as dimensions approach the 5–7 nanometer range it will be difficult to operate any transistor structure that is utilizing the metal-oxide semiconductor (MOS) physics as the basic principle of operation. Of course, we expect that new devices, like the
very promising tunnel transistors
, will allow a smooth transition from traditional CMOS to this new class of devices to reach these new levels of miniaturization. However, it is becoming clear that fundamental geometrical limits will be reached in the above timeframe. By fully utilizing the vertical dimension, it will be possible to
stack layers of transistors
on top of each other, and this 3D approach will continue to increase the number of components per square millimeter even when horizontal physical dimensions will no longer be amenable to any further reduction. It seems important, then, that we ask ourselves a fundamental question: “How will we be able to increase the computation and memory capacity when the device physical limits will be reached?” It becomes necessary to re-examine how we can get more information in a finite amount of space.
The semiconductor industry has thrived on
Boolean logic
; after all, for most applications the CMOS devices have been used as nothing more than an “on-off” switch. Consequently, it becomes of paramount importance to develop new techniques that allow the use of multiple (i.e., more than 2) logic states in any given and finite location, which evokes the magic of “
quantum computing
” looming in the distance. However, short of reaching this goal, a field of active research involves
increasing the number of states
available, e.g. 4–10 states, and to increase the number of “virtual transistors” by 2 every 2 years.
More than Moore
During the blazing progress propelled by Moore’s Law of semiconductor logic and memory products, many “complementary” technologies have progressed as well, although not necessarily scaling to Moore’s Law. Heterogeneous integration of multiple technologies has generated “added value” to devices with multiple applications, beyond the traditional semiconductor logic and memory products that had lead the semiconductor industry from the mid 60s to the 90s. A variety of wireless devices contain typical examples of this confluence of technologies, e.g. logic and memory devices, display technology, microelectricomechanical systems (
MEMS
), RF and Analog/Mixed-signal technologies (
RF/AMS
), etc.
The ITRS has incorporated More than Moore and RF/AMS chapters in the main body of the ITRS, but is uncertain whether this is sufficient to encompass the plethora of associated technologies now entangled into modern products, or the multi-faceted public consumer who has become an influential driver of the semiconductor industry, demanding custom functionality in commercial electronic products. In the next blog of this series, we will examine select data from the
ITRS Overall Roadmap Technology Characteristics (ORTC) 2012
and attempt to extrapolate the progress in the next 15 years, and its potential impact.
The opportunities for more discourse on the impact and future of Moore’s Law on CS and other disciplines are abundant, and can be continued with your comments on the
Research at Google Google+ page
. Please join, and share your thoughts.
Moore’s Law, Part 1: Brief history of Moore's Law and current state
lunes, 11 de noviembre de 2013
This is the first entry of a series focused on Moore’s Law and its implications moving forward, edited from a White paper on Moore’s Law, written by Google University Relations Manager Michel Benard. This series quotes major sources about Moore’s Law and explores how they believe Moore’s Law will likely continue over the course of the next several years. We will also explore if there are fields other than digital electronics that either have an emerging Moore's Law situation, or promises for such a Law that would drive their future performance.
---
Moore's Law is the observation that over the
history of computing hardware
, the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. The period often quoted as "18 months" is due to Intel executive David House, who predicted that period for a doubling in chip performance (being a combination of the effect of more transistors and their being faster).
-
Wikipedia
Moore’s Law is named after Intel co-founder
Gordon E. Moore
, who described the trend in his
1965 paper
. In it, Moore noted that the number of components in integrated circuits had doubled every year from the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958 until 1965 and predicted that the trend would continue "for at least ten years". Moore’s prediction has proven to be uncannily accurate, in part because the law is now used in the semiconductor industry to guide long-term planning and to set targets for research and development.
The capabilities of many digital electronic devices are strongly linked to Moore's law: processing speed, memory capacity, sensors and even the number and size of
pixels in digital cameras
. All of these are improving at (roughly) exponential rates as well (see
Other formulations and similar laws
). This exponential improvement has dramatically enhanced the impact of digital electronics in nearly every segment of the
world economy
, and is a driving force of technological and social change in the late 20th and early 21st centuries.
Most improvement trends have resulted principally from the industry’s ability to exponentially decrease the minimum feature sizes used to fabricate integrated circuits. Of course, the most frequently cited trend is in integration level, which is usually expressed as Moore’s Law (that is, the number of components per chip doubles roughly every 24 months). The most significant trend is the decreasing cost-per-function, which has led to significant improvements in economic productivity and overall quality of life through proliferation of computers, communication, and other industrial and consumer electronics.
Transistor counts for integrated circuits plotted against their dates of introduction. The curve shows Moore's law - the doubling of transistor counts every two years. The y-axis is logarithmic, so the line corresponds to exponential growth
All of these improvement trends, sometimes called “scaling” trends, have been enabled by large R&D investments. In the last three decades, the growing size of the required investments has motivated industry collaboration and spawned many R&D partnerships, consortia, and other cooperative ventures. To help guide these R&D programs, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) initiated the National Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (
NTRS
) in 1992. Since its inception, a basic premise of the NTRS has been that continued scaling of electronics would further reduce the cost per function and promote market growth for integrated circuits. Thus, the Roadmap has been put together in the spirit of a challenge—essentially, “What technical capabilities need to be developed for the industry to stay on Moore’s Law and the other trends?”
In 1998, the SIA was joined by corresponding industry associations in Europe, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan to participate in a 1998 update of the Roadmap and to begin work toward the first International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (
ITRS
), published in 1999. The overall objective of the ITRS is to present industry-wide consensus on the “best current estimate” of the industry’s research and development needs out to a 15-year horizon. As such, it provides a guide to the efforts of companies, universities, governments, and other research providers or funders. The ITRS has improved the quality of R&D investment decisions made at all levels and has helped channel research efforts to areas that most need research breakthroughs.
For more than half a century these scaling trends continued, and
sources in 2005
expected it to continue until at least 2015 or 2020. However, the
2010 update to the ITRS
has growth slowing at the end of 2013, after which time transistor counts and densities are to double only every three years. Accordingly, since 2007 the ITRS has addressed the concept of functional diversification under the title “
More than Moore
” (MtM). This concept addresses an emerging category of devices that incorporate functionalities that do not necessarily scale according to “Moore's Law,” but provide additional value to the end customer in different ways.
The MtM approach typically allows for the non-digital functionalities (e.g., RF communication, power control, passive components, sensors, actuators) to migrate from the system board-level into a particular package-level (
SiP
) or chip-level (
SoC
) system solution. It is also hoped that by the end of this decade, it will be possible to augment the technology of constructing integrated circuits (
CMOS
) by introducing new devices that will realize some “beyond CMOS” capabilities. However, since these new devices may not totally replace CMOS functionality, it is anticipated that either chip-level or package level integration with CMOS may be implemented.
The ITRS provides a very comprehensive analysis of the perspective for Moore’s Law when looking towards 2020 and beyond. The analysis can be roughly segmented into two trends: More Moore (MM) and More than Moore (MtM). In the next blog in this series, we will look in the the recent conclusions mentioned in the ITRS 2012 report on both trends.
The opportunities for more discourse on the impact and future of Moore’s Law on CS and other disciplines are abundant, and can be continued with your comments on the
Research at Google Google+ page
. Please join, and share your thoughts.
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